Utrecht 5-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Utrecht versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Utrecht have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht have gone 4W 1D 0L this season (5 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Utrecht have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 50% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Utrecht 70% | Willem II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.448 / defence 1.083 | Willem II attack 0.962 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.337. Utrecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Utrecht games / 10 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 55% | Draw 21% | Willem II 24%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Willem II 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 80% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 55% | Draw 21% | Willem II 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Utrecht 2.15 / Willem II 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.448 / def 1.083 | Willem II attack 0.962 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Willem II xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Willem II kick off?
Utrecht vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Willem II?
Utrecht 5 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Utrecht vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Willem II part of?
Utrecht vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 55% chance of winning, Willem II a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Utrecht and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Utrecht and Willem II in?
Utrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utrecht's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.96x) against Utrecht's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.84
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.55
1.39
Willem II xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
3%
35.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.39 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Utrecht have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 2L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Utrecht against 1.80 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utrecht are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 60%.
Defensively: Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Willem II in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Willem II have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Willem II away?
Utrecht's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.60 PPG; Willem II away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Utrecht or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Willem II in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Utrecht go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Utrecht
0
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Willem II 2-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Willem II?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Utrecht, 60% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Utrecht and 60% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Utrecht's games and 60% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Utrecht's matches and 60% of Willem II's.
Do Utrecht and Willem II tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Willem II in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Willem II 5-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.39 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.45 / defence 1.08 against Willem II attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 55% | Draw 21% | Willem II 24%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 70%, Willem II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 2.00 PPG, Willem II 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.20 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.