Utrecht 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utrecht host Sparta Rotterdam at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Rotterdam — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Utrecht trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 61% versus Sparta Rotterdam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 59% | Sparta Rotterdam 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.04 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.678 / defence 0.819 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.863 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.309. Utrecht's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Utrecht games / 44 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 37% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 31%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sparta Rotterdam (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 37% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Utrecht 1.04 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.678 / def 0.819 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.863 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sparta Rotterdam xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Utrecht 3 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 37% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (0.68) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.11
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Utrecht xG
Total xG
1.97
0.93
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.93 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Utrecht's recent record stands at 15W 13D 16L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 18L across 44 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.32 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 8W 8D 5L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utrecht are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.05 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Utrecht's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.52 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Utrecht
1
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 5, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Utrecht 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 57%, Sparta Rotterdam 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Utrecht) and 52% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Utrecht have failed to score in 29% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Utrecht's recent matches and 38% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Utrecht's recent games and 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.04 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.93 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.68 / defence 0.82 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 37% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 31%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 59%, Sparta Rotterdam 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.32 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.