Utrecht 1-3 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utrecht host Groningen at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht at Stadion Galgenwaard this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Utrecht at 1.30 PPG versus Groningen's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Groningen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Utrecht, 0 for Groningen and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Utrecht in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Groningen in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 58% versus Groningen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 62% | Groningen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.41 xG and Groningen 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.021 / defence 1.114 | Groningen attack 0.930 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.258. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Utrecht games / 26 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 40% | Draw 26% | Groningen 35%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Groningen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 60% | Groningen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 40% | Draw 26% | Groningen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Utrecht 1.41 / Groningen 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.021 / def 1.114 | Groningen attack 0.930 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Groningen xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Groningen kick off?
Utrecht vs Groningen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Groningen?
Utrecht 1 - 3 Groningen.
Where is Utrecht vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Groningen part of?
Utrecht vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 40% chance of winning, Groningen a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Utrecht and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Groningen?
Record (1 meetings): Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Utrecht and Groningen in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.02) and Groningen's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.89
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
Groningen xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.30 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Utrecht come into this having played 26 games, going 11W 7D 8L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.54 PPG, Groningen on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Utrecht's home form reads 7W 4D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utrecht are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Groningen in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 games (1.54 PPG), while Groningen have gone 8W 9D 9L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Groningen away?
Utrecht's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.92 PPG; Groningen away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Utrecht's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Utrecht
1
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 5, Groningen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Groningen 1-2 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Groningen?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Utrecht at 62%, Groningen at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Utrecht and 62% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Utrecht's games and 69% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Utrecht's matches and 62% of Groningen's.
Do Utrecht and Groningen tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Groningen in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Utrecht 1-3 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.41 xG and Groningen 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Groningen attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 40% | Draw 26% | Groningen 35%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 62%, Groningen 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.54 PPG, Groningen 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.