Utrecht 1-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Utrecht versus Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 8 January 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Utrecht (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Galgenwaard this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Utrecht, 2.30 for Feyenoord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Utrecht, 1 for Feyenoord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 62% versus Feyenoord 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 62% | Feyenoord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.39 xG and Feyenoord 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.937 / defence 0.887 | Feyenoord attack 1.314 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.326. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Utrecht games / 48 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 33% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 40%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Feyenoord 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 50% | Feyenoord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 33% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Utrecht 1.39 / Feyenoord 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.937 / def 0.887 | Feyenoord attack 1.314 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Feyenoord xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Feyenoord kick off?
Utrecht vs Feyenoord kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Utrecht 1 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Utrecht vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Feyenoord part of?
Utrecht vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 33% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Utrecht and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Feyenoord?
Record (2 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Feyenoord in?
Utrecht (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 0.94x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.31x) against Utrecht's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.70
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.94
1.55
Feyenoord xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.55 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 19W 13D 16L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 32W 8D 8L from 48 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (11W 8D 5L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 16W 3D 5L from 24 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.31 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 32W 8D 8L in their last 48 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.71 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Utrecht or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-5 on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Utrecht
1
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 2, Feyenoord have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Utrecht 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 62%, Feyenoord 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Utrecht and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Utrecht's games and 62% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Utrecht's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do Utrecht and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht and Feyenoord finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.39 xG and Feyenoord 1.55 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Feyenoord attack 1.31 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 33% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 40%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 62%, Feyenoord 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.