Twente 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Twente at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Twente vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to De Grolsch Veste to face Twente in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Twente's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 2L from 8 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Twente have posted 2W 1D 0L at De Grolsch Veste — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.75 — Twente are significantly better at De Grolsch Veste than their overall form suggests.
Willem II (all games): 5W 1D 2L across 8 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.25. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.75 PPG for Twente against 2.00 for Willem II. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Twente — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Willem II — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Twente 75% and Willem II 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Twente 50% | Willem II 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Twente 1.59 xG and Willem II 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Twente attack 1.039 / defence 0.898 | Willem II attack 0.948 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.412. Data: 8 Twente games / 8 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Twente 46% | Draw 25% | Willem II 29%. Fair-value odds: Twente 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 3.45. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Twente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Twente 67% | Willem II 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Twente vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: De Grolsch Veste • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Twente 46% | Draw 25% | Willem II 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Twente 1.59 / Willem II 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Twente attack 1.039 / def 0.898 | Willem II attack 0.948 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Twente (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Twente xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Willem II xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Twente vs Willem II kick off?
Twente vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at De Grolsch Veste.
What was the final score in Twente vs Willem II?
Twente 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Twente vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Grolsch Veste.
What competition is Twente vs Willem II part of?
Twente vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Twente vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Twente a 46% chance of winning, Willem II a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Twente vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Twente and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Twente vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Twente and Willem II in?
Twente (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Twente's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.95x) against Twente's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.04
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Twente xG
Total xG
2.79
1.20
Willem II xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Twente vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Twente and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Twente and 1.20 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Twente vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Twente's recent record stands at 4W 2D 2L from 8 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 2L across 8 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Twente against 2.00 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Twente have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Twente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Willem II's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Twente are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Twente have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Willem II in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Twente
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Twente and Willem II in coming into this match?
Twente have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Willem II have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Twente at home or Willem II away?
Twente's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Twente at home: 2.33 PPG; Willem II away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Twente or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Twente have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Willem II in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Twente have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Twente won 6-2 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Twente have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Twente
1
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Twente have won 3, Willem II have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Twente and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Twente 6-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Twente and Willem II?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Twente see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Willem II see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Twente, 67% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Twente) and 67% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Twente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Willem II in 33%; Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Twente home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Twente play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Twente's games and 67% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Twente vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Twente's recent games and 67% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Twente and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente and Willem II finished level at 1-1 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.59 xG and Willem II 1.20 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Willem II attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Twente 46% | Draw 25% | Willem II 29%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 50%, Willem II 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Twente's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Twente 1.75 PPG, Willem II 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.