Twente 1-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Twente vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Grolsch Veste plays host to Twente versus PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Twente (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Twente at De Grolsch Veste this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Grolsch Veste.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Twente's favour (2.30 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Twente, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Twente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Twente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Twente 58% versus PEC Zwolle 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Twente 50% | PEC Zwolle 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Twente 1.61 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Twente attack 1.059 / defence 0.885 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.757 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.279. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Twente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Twente games / 26 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Twente 55% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 20%. Fair-value odds: Twente 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Twente (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Twente as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Twente 50% | PEC Zwolle 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Twente vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: De Grolsch Veste • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Twente 55% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Twente 1.61 / PEC Zwolle 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Twente attack 1.059 / def 0.885 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.757 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Twente (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Twente xG
Expected Goals
0.86
PEC Zwolle xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Twente vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Twente vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at De Grolsch Veste.
What was the final score in Twente vs PEC Zwolle?
Twente 1 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Twente vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at De Grolsch Veste.
What competition is Twente vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Twente vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Twente vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Twente a 55% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Twente vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Twente and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Twente vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Twente 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Twente and PEC Zwolle in?
Twente (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Twente's attack rating (1.06) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.76x) against Twente's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.01
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Twente xG
Total xG
2.46
0.86
PEC Zwolle xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
4%
24.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Twente vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Twente and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Twente and 0.86 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Twente vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Twente have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 15W 6D 5L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 5W 5D 16L from 26 games, 0.77 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Twente are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Twente have posted 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (7W 4D 1L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 1D 8L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Twente are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.77 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Twente
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Twente and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Twente have gone 15W 6D 5L in their last 26 games (1.96 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 5W 5D 16L in their last 26 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Twente at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Twente's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Twente at home: 2.08 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Twente or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Twente have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Twente have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Twente
3
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Twente have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Twente and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Twente 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Twente and PEC Zwolle?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Twente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Twente 50%, PEC Zwolle 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Twente) and 42% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Twente keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Twente home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Twente play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Twente's recent matches and 42% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Twente vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Twente's recent games and 42% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Twente and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Twente have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Twente edge out PEC Zwolle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat PEC Zwolle 1-0 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.61 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.86 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.76 / defence 1.35, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Twente 55% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 20%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 50%, PEC Zwolle 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Twente's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.