Twente 1-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Twente at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Twente vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Twente and Feyenoord meet at De Grolsch Veste in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 January 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Twente's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Twente's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at De Grolsch Veste this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Grolsch Veste. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Twente are significantly better at De Grolsch Veste than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Feyenoord are 0.50 PPG clear of Twente in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.40 vs 1.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Twente lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Feyenoord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Twente half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Twente 48% versus Feyenoord 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Twente 48% | Feyenoord 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Twente 1.43 xG and Feyenoord 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Twente attack 1.194 / defence 0.586 | Feyenoord attack 1.353 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.227. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 0.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Twente's defence rating of 0.586 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Twente games / 52 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Twente 45% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 24%. Fair-value odds: Twente 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Feyenoord 4.17. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Feyenoord (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Twente if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Twente 20% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Twente vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: De Grolsch Veste • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Twente 45% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Twente 1.43 / Feyenoord 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Twente attack 1.194 / def 0.586 | Feyenoord attack 1.353 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Twente (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Twente xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Feyenoord xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Twente vs Feyenoord kick off?
Twente vs Feyenoord kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at De Grolsch Veste.
What was the final score in Twente vs Feyenoord?
Twente 1 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Twente vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at De Grolsch Veste.
What competition is Twente vs Feyenoord part of?
Twente vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Twente vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Twente a 45% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Twente vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Twente and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Twente vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Feyenoord?
Record (3 meetings): Twente 1W | Draws 1 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are Twente and Feyenoord in?
Twente (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Twente's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.35x) against Twente's defence (0.59x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.22
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Twente xG
Total xG
2.40
0.97
Feyenoord xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
6%
17.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Twente vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Twente and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Twente and 0.97 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Twente vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Twente come into this having played 52 games, going 30W 13D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.15 PPG from 52 outings (34W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Twente against 2.15 for Feyenoord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Twente's home form reads 18W 6D 2L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.12 points per game from 26 outings (17W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Twente are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.27 scored and 0.94 conceded. Feyenoord's attacking output running into Twente's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Twente have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Feyenoord in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Twente
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Twente and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Twente have gone 30W 13D 9L in their last 52 games (1.98 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 34W 10D 8L in their last 52 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Twente at home or Feyenoord away?
Twente's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Twente at home: 2.31 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Twente or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Twente have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 2-6 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Twente have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Twente
4
Draws
3
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Twente have won 3, Feyenoord have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Twente and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Twente 2-0 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Twente 38%, Feyenoord 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Twente) and 65% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Twente keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Feyenoord in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Twente home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Twente play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Twente's recent matches and 62% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Twente vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Twente's matches and 65% of Feyenoord's.
Do Twente and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Twente have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Twente and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente and Feyenoord finished level at 1-1 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.43 xG and Feyenoord 0.97 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.19 / defence 0.59 against Feyenoord attack 1.35 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Twente 45% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 24%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 48%, Feyenoord 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Twente's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Twente 1.98 PPG, Feyenoord 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Twente (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.