Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1W 4D 5L at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Willem II — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Rotterdam 0.70 PPG, Willem II 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 0 for Willem II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 3–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Willem II trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 48% versus Willem II 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 43% | Willem II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 xG and Willem II 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.697 / defence 1.242 | Willem II attack 0.714 / defence 1.703. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.390. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.703 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Sparta Rotterdam games / 21 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 39% | Draw 27% | Willem II 34%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Willem II 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 39% | Draw 27% | Willem II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 / Willem II 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.697 / def 1.242 | Willem II attack 0.714 / def 1.703 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Willem II xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 39% chance of winning, Willem II a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.77
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
Willem II xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.23 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 2W 8D 11L from 21 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 12L across 21 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 0.67 PPG, Willem II on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 1W 4D 5L from 10 games — 0.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.00 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 8D 11L in their last 21 games (0.67 PPG), while Willem II have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 0.70 PPG; Willem II away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, Willem II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Willem II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 70% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 50% of games; Willem II in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 60% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 70% of Willem II's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Willem II in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Willem II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Willem II 1-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 xG and Willem II 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.70 / defence 1.24 against Willem II attack 0.71 / defence 1.70, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 39% | Draw 27% | Willem II 34%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 43%, Willem II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 0.67 PPG, Willem II 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.