Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees PSV Eindhoven travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Sparta Rotterdam's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for PSV Eindhoven and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 46% versus PSV Eindhoven 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 41% | PSV Eindhoven 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 0.79 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.678 / defence 1.183 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.302 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.343. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Sparta Rotterdam games / 23 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | PSV Eindhoven 1.49. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | PSV Eindhoven 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 0.79 / PSV Eindhoven 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.678 / def 1.183 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.302 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
2.07
PSV Eindhoven xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 13% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.68) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
13%
7.58
20%
5.08
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.86
2.07
PSV Eindhoven xG
7.58
13%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
13%
7.92
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
2%
59.98
30%
3.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.07 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 3W 8D 11L from 22 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 16W 1D 5L across 22 games — 2.23 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Rotterdam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 1W 4D 5L from 10 games — 0.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PSV Eindhoven's away record stands at 7W 1D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.50 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 8D 11L in their last 22 games (0.77 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 16W 1D 5L in their last 22 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 0.70 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2025, when PSV Eindhoven won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
9
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 40%, PSV Eindhoven 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 80% (PSV Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 60% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 30% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 80% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Sparta Rotterdam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 0.79 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.07 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.68 / defence 1.18 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.30 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 41%, PSV Eindhoven 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.