Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen meet at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Rotterdam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 2W 3D 5L at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Heerenveen have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heerenveen have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Sparta Rotterdam's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Heerenveen's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sparta Rotterdam lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Heerenveen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 44% versus Heerenveen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Heerenveen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 0.90 xG and Heerenveen 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.725 / defence 1.112 | Heerenveen attack 0.556 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.296. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Sparta Rotterdam games / 27 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 34% | Heerenveen 30%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Heerenveen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Heerenveen's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Heerenveen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 34% | Heerenveen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 0.90 / Heerenveen 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.725 / def 1.112 | Heerenveen attack 0.556 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Heerenveen xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 36% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 0W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Heerenveen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.72x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.56x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 25/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
36%
2.79
34%
2.95
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
1.71
0.80
Heerenveen xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.80 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 4W 9D 12L from 25 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 13L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 0.96 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 2W 4D 6L from 12 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 0.80 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 9D 12L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Heerenveen away?
Heerenveen's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 0.83 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Heerenveen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sparta Rotterdam
3
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, Heerenveen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Heerenveen 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Heerenveen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 42%, Heerenveen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Sparta Rotterdam and 33% for Heerenveen.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 33%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 42% of games; Heerenveen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 50% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 33% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 28, as Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 0.90 xG and Heerenveen 0.80 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against Heerenveen attack 0.56 / defence 1.09, drawn from 25/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 34% | Heerenveen 30%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 40%, Heerenveen 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 0.84 PPG, Heerenveen 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.