Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen meet at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 1W 3D 4L across 8 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.75 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — Sparta Rotterdam are significantly better at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel than their overall form suggests.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.75 vs 0.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sparta Rotterdam register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Groningen in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 62% and Groningen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.42 xG and Groningen 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.748 / defence 1.340 | Groningen attack 0.793 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.425. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Sparta Rotterdam games / 8 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 25% | Groningen 40%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 75% | Groningen 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 25% | Groningen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.42 / Groningen 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.748 / def 1.340 | Groningen attack 0.793 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Groningen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Groningen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 36% chance of winning, Groningen a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.79x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
36%
2.81
25%
4.07
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.93
1.51
Groningen xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.51 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 4L across 8 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 0.75 for Groningen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Sparta Rotterdam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Groningen's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Groningen in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Groningen have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Groningen away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.25 PPG; Groningen away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-5 on 28 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 6, Groningen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Sparta Rotterdam, 75% for Groningen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sparta Rotterdam and 100% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 75% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 100% of Groningen's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Groningen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 9, as Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.42 xG and Groningen 1.51 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.75 / defence 1.34 against Groningen attack 0.79 / defence 1.37, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 25% | Groningen 40%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 0.75 PPG, Groningen 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.