Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel plays host to Sparta Rotterdam versus Excelsior in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 14 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Excelsior's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sparta Rotterdam's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Excelsior in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 47% versus Excelsior 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 47% | Excelsior 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 2.88 xG and Excelsior 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.164 / defence 0.896 | Excelsior attack 0.819 / defence 1.616. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.313. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.616 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Sparta Rotterdam games / 15 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 76% | Draw 16% | Excelsior 9%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Excelsior 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 76% | Draw 16% | Excelsior 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 59% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 2.88 / Excelsior 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.164 / def 0.896 | Excelsior attack 0.819 / def 1.616 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Excelsior xG
59%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 0 Excelsior.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 76% chance of winning, Excelsior a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Excelsior (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 1.16x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 2.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.82x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 3-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.43
9%
11.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.84
0.96
Excelsior xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.43
16%
Draw
11.34
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
6%
17.73
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.96 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 15W 15D 19L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 21W 12D 16L from 49 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.53 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 9W 6D 9L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.94 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 15W 15D 19L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 21W 12D 16L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Excelsior away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.42 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 1-4 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
2
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, Excelsior have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 54%, Excelsior 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 58% (Excelsior).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 62% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 58% of Excelsior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Excelsior 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Excelsior 1-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 2.88 xG and Excelsior 0.96 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Excelsior landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against Excelsior attack 0.82 / defence 1.62, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 76% | Draw 16% | Excelsior 9%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 47%, Excelsior 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Excelsior's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 PPG, Excelsior 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.