Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel plays host to Sparta Rotterdam versus Emmen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Emmen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Sparta Rotterdam's favour (1.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Emmen — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 45% versus Emmen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 45% | Emmen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 2.34 xG and Emmen 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.028 / defence 0.901 | Emmen attack 0.613 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.318. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Sparta Rotterdam games / 8 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 74% | Draw 17% | Emmen 10%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Emmen 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Emmen 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 74% | Draw 17% | Emmen 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 47% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 2.34 / Emmen 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.028 / def 0.901 | Emmen attack 0.613 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Emmen xG
47%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen?
Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 74% chance of winning, Emmen a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Emmen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (1.03) and Emmen's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.61x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
74%
1.36
17%
6.01
10%
10.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.07
0.73
Emmen xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
10.17
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
10%
10.42
Win to Nil
36%
2.82
1%
106.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.73 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 13D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 2.00 PPG from 42 outings (26W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.60 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Emmen have gone 26W 6D 10L in their last 42 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.19 PPG; Emmen away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Emmen in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen?
From 2 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, Emmen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Emmen 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, Emmen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 38% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Emmen in 38%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 29% of games; Emmen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 38% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 38% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Emmen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Emmen in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Emmen 3-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 2.34 xG and Emmen 0.73 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Emmen attack 0.61 / defence 1.37, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 74% | Draw 17% | Emmen 10%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 45%, Emmen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.