Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajax make the trip to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to face Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Eredivisie appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajax (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.10 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's away record: 4W 2D 0L from 6 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 6 games (83%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Ajax are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 85% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | Ajax 8%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 38% | Ajax 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 0.55 xG and Ajax 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.612 / defence 1.116 | Ajax attack 1.257 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.381. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.612 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajax's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Sparta Rotterdam games / 13 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 10% | Draw 20% | Ajax 71%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 10.00 | Draw 5.00 | Ajax 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajax at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 57% | Ajax 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 10% | Draw 20% | Ajax 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 36% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 0.55 / Ajax 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.612 / def 1.116 | Ajax attack 1.257 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Ajax (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Ajax xG
36%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 1 Ajax.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 10% chance of winning, Ajax a 71% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.61) and Ajax's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.26x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 0-3 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
10%
10.46
20%
5.04
71%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.6%
Away win
0 – 3
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.48
1.94
Ajax xG
10.46
10%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
1.42
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
14%
6.93
58%
1.73
Win to Nil
1%
72.50
41%
2.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.94 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 2W 4D 7L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax's form line: 9W 3D 1L from 13 games, 2.31 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Ajax have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 3.23 scored and 0.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 8%.
Defensively: Ajax in 85% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Ajax have gone 9W 3D 1L in their last 13 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 0.83 PPG; Ajax away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Ajax in 85%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 4-0 on 19 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Sparta Rotterdam
3
Draws
7
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 0, Ajax have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Ajax 4-0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 17% (Ajax) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Sparta Rotterdam and 33% for Ajax.
On the defensive side: Ajax in 83%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 17% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 33% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajax in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Sparta Rotterdam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 0.55 xG and Ajax 1.94 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajax landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.61 / defence 1.12 against Ajax attack 1.26 / defence 0.71, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 10% | Draw 20% | Ajax 71%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 38%, Ajax 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajax's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 8% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 85% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.