PSV Eindhoven 1-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waalwijk make the trip to Philips Stadion to face PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PSV Eindhoven at Philips Stadion this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward PSV Eindhoven. A 0.90 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.50 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — PSV Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Waalwijk in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for Waalwijk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 72% and Waalwijk 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 82% | Waalwijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.58 xG and Waalwijk 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.574 / defence 0.974 | Waalwijk attack 0.939 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.422. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.574 — their λ of 2.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 PSV Eindhoven games / 39 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 65% | Draw 17% | Waalwijk 18%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | Waalwijk 5.56. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.88 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 80% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 65% | Draw 17% | Waalwijk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 67% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.58 / Waalwijk 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.574 / def 0.974 | Waalwijk attack 0.939 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Waalwijk xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
PSV Eindhoven 1 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 65% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 18% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 2W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.58. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.94x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
65%
1.54
17%
5.72
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.88
1.30
Waalwijk xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.72
17%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
8%
13.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
1%
75.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.30 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 39 games, going 30W 3D 6L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.13 PPG from 39 outings (10W 14D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 16W 0D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (3W 10D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.79 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.28 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 30W 3D 6L in their last 39 games (2.38 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 10W 14D 15L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Waalwijk away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.53 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, Waalwijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Waalwijk 0-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for PSV Eindhoven, 79% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 84% for PSV Eindhoven and 53% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 79% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 84% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 53% of Waalwijk's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Waalwijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Waalwijk 1-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.58 xG and Waalwijk 1.30 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PSV Eindhoven fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.57 / defence 0.97 against Waalwijk attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 65% | Draw 17% | Waalwijk 18%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 82%, Waalwijk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.