PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waalwijk make the trip to Philips Stadion to face PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PSV Eindhoven at Philips Stadion this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward PSV Eindhoven. A 1.00 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.20 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — PSV Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Waalwijk in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for Waalwijk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 4–1 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 64% and Waalwijk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 79% | Waalwijk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.29 xG and Waalwijk 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.600 / defence 1.081 | Waalwijk attack 0.909 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.305. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.600 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 PSV Eindhoven games / 28 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 60% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 21%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Waalwijk 4.76. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 70% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 60% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.29 / Waalwijk 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.600 / def 1.081 | Waalwijk attack 0.909 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Waalwijk xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
PSV Eindhoven 2 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 60% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.60x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.91x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
60%
1.67
20%
5.12
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.57
1.28
Waalwijk xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
10%
9.86
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
2%
48.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.28 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 28 games, going 21W 2D 5L for 2.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.00 PPG from 28 outings (6W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.32 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 11W 0D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (2W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.11 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 21W 2D 5L in their last 28 games (2.32 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Waalwijk away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.36 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, Waalwijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Waalwijk 0-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for PSV Eindhoven, 79% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for PSV Eindhoven and 57% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 79% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 57% of Waalwijk's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Waalwijk 2-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.29 xG and Waalwijk 1.28 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.60 / defence 1.08 against Waalwijk attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 60% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 21%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 79%, Waalwijk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.