PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Heracles travel to Philips Stadion to take on PSV Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PSV Eindhoven have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Philips Stadion, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for Heracles and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Heracles trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 67% versus Heracles 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PSV Eindhoven 79% | Heracles 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.03 xG and Heracles 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.428 / defence 1.159 | Heracles attack 0.588 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.320. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 PSV Eindhoven games / 24 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 22% | Heracles 15%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Heracles 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 70% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 22% | Heracles 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.03 / Heracles 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.428 / def 1.159 | Heracles attack 0.588 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Heracles xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 Heracles.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 63% chance of winning, Heracles a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Heracles in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PSV Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.57
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.93
0.90
Heracles xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
49.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.90 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PSV Eindhoven's recent record stands at 18W 1D 5L from 24 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 12L across 24 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PSV Eindhoven have managed 8W 0D 3L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 0W 2D 9L across 11 trips, a 0.18 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.08 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Heracles in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 18W 1D 5L in their last 24 games (2.29 PPG), while Heracles have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Heracles away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.18 PPG; Heracles away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PSV Eindhoven and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
0
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, Heracles have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Heracles 1-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Heracles?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 73%, Heracles 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for PSV Eindhoven and 54% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 9% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 54% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 54% of Heracles's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Heracles tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Heracles in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles 3-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.03 xG and Heracles 0.90 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.43 / defence 1.16 against Heracles attack 0.59 / defence 1.24, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 22% | Heracles 15%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 79%, Heracles 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.