PSV Eindhoven 7-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven host FC Volendam at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Philips Stadion, PSV Eindhoven have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, PSV Eindhoven have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 70% and FC Volendam 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 81% | FC Volendam 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.41 xG and FC Volendam 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.364 / defence 0.967 | FC Volendam attack 0.947 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.462. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 PSV Eindhoven games / 3 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 61% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 20%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 70% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 61% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 67% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.41 / FC Volendam 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.364 / def 0.967 | FC Volendam attack 0.947 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Volendam xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
PSV Eindhoven 7 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 61% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.36x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
61%
1.64
19%
5.32
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.75
1.34
FC Volendam xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
9%
11.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
2%
55.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.34 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.43 PPG on a 29W 3D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 21W 11D 5L from 37 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Venue Form
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.50 PPG from 18 outings (15W 0D 3L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 8W 8D 2L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.05 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 73%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 29W 3D 5L in their last 37 games (2.43 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 21W 11D 5L in their last 37 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or FC Volendam away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.50 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — PSV Eindhoven at 72%, FC Volendam at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for PSV Eindhoven and 56% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 56% of FC Volendam's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 7-1 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat FC Volendam 7-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.41 xG and FC Volendam 1.34 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.36 / defence 0.97 against FC Volendam attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 61% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 20%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 81%, FC Volendam 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 2.00. Form held, and they took the win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.94 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.