PSV Eindhoven 0-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PSV Eindhoven at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar meet at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's home record at Philips Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — PSV Eindhoven are significantly better at Philips Stadion than their overall form suggests.
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for PSV Eindhoven against 1.70 for AZ Alkmaar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AZ Alkmaar in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 68% and AZ Alkmaar 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 81% | AZ Alkmaar 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.84 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.824 / defence 0.871 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.238 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.340. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.824 — their λ of 2.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 PSV Eindhoven games / 47 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 66% | Draw 17% | AZ Alkmaar 17%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | AZ Alkmaar 5.88. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.29. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.29 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.84 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 60% | AZ Alkmaar 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 66% | Draw 17% | AZ Alkmaar 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 72% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.84 / AZ Alkmaar 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.824 / def 0.871 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.238 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.45
AZ Alkmaar xG
72%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
PSV Eindhoven 0 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 66% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (2 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 1W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.82x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 2.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.24x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
66%
1.51
17%
6.02
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
2 – 2
5.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.29
1.45
AZ Alkmaar xG
1.51
66%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
6%
17.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
1%
100.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.45 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 4.29.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.36 PPG on a 36W 3D 8L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 27W 9D 11L from 47 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AZ Alkmaar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.61 PPG from 23 outings (20W 0D 3L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 11W 4D 8L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.72 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.00 scored and 1.23 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 77%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 36W 3D 8L in their last 47 games (2.36 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 27W 9D 11L in their last 47 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.61 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for PSV Eindhoven, 78% for AZ Alkmaar — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for PSV Eindhoven and 78% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 78% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 78% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AZ Alkmaar defy the odds to beat PSV Eindhoven 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat PSV Eindhoven 0-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.84 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.45 xG, a combined 4.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PSV Eindhoven fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.82 / defence 0.87 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.24 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 66% | Draw 17% | AZ Alkmaar 17%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a AZ Alkmaar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 81%, AZ Alkmaar 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.91. Form was overturned, with AZ Alkmaar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.22 scoring average — below par going forward. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.