PEC Zwolle 0-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waalwijk make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 0W 4D 2L from 6 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.70 for Waalwijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 38% versus Waalwijk 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 38% | Waalwijk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.98 xG and Waalwijk 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.634 / defence 1.078 | Waalwijk attack 0.889 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.402. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 PEC Zwolle games / 13 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 45%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Waalwijk 2.22. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 33% | Waalwijk 83%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.98 / Waalwijk 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.634 / def 1.078 | Waalwijk attack 0.889 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Waalwijk xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 27% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.89x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.62
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.32
1.34
Waalwijk xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
7%
14.08
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.34 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 1D 11L for 0.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 1W 1D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (0W 4D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.54 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.08 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 11L in their last 13 games (0.31 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Waalwijk away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.67 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 33%, Waalwijk 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (PEC Zwolle) and 67% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of PEC Zwolle's games and 83% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 67% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PEC Zwolle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk finished level at 0-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.98 xG and Waalwijk 1.34 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.63 / defence 1.08 against Waalwijk attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 45%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 38%, Waalwijk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Waalwijk's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Waalwijk arrived the stronger side — 0.85 PPG against 0.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.