PEC Zwolle 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as PEC Zwolle welcome Sparta Rotterdam to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PEC Zwolle at 1.20 PPG versus Sparta Rotterdam's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 64% and Sparta Rotterdam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | Sparta Rotterdam 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.49 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.991 / defence 1.190 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.917 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.251. Data: 47 PEC Zwolle games / 47 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 35%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | Sparta Rotterdam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.49 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.991 / def 1.190 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.917 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sparta Rotterdam xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 40% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (4 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.99) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
40%
2.48
25%
4.00
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.85
1.36
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.36 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 12W 12D 23L from 47 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 20L across 47 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.02 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 8W 3D 12L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 9W 3D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.34 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Sparta Rotterdam in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 15W 12D 20L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.17 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 65%, Sparta Rotterdam 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (PEC Zwolle) and 52% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of PEC Zwolle's games and 61% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Sparta Rotterdam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.49 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.36 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 1.19 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 35%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, Sparta Rotterdam 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.02 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.