PEC Zwolle 1-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feyenoord make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Feyenoord have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Feyenoord have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Feyenoord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 40% versus Feyenoord 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 28% | Feyenoord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.78 xG and Feyenoord 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.698 / defence 1.068 | Feyenoord attack 1.107 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.299. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 PEC Zwolle games / 25 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 50% | Feyenoord 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.78 / Feyenoord 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.698 / def 1.068 | Feyenoord attack 1.107 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Feyenoord xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 19% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.70x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.11x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
19%
5.25
26%
3.89
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.32
1.54
Feyenoord xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
4%
24.41
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.54 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 5D 15L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (16W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.92 points per game from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.28 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 5W 5D 15L in their last 25 games (0.80 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 16W 4D 5L in their last 25 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.83 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.92 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
8
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, Feyenoord have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 42%, Feyenoord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (PEC Zwolle) and 67% (Feyenoord).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 50%; PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 50% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 67% of Feyenoord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.78 xG and Feyenoord 1.54 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.70 / defence 1.07 against Feyenoord attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 28%, Feyenoord 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.