NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Willem II meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEC Nijmegen have collected 2.00 PPG across 3 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Willem II in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (NEC Nijmegen 0% | Willem II 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 33% | Willem II 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.26 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.028 / defence 1.036 | Willem II attack 1.059 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.191. Data: 3 NEC Nijmegen games / 3 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 36% | Draw 27% | Willem II 38%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Willem II 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: NEC Nijmegen 0% | Willem II 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 36% | Draw 27% | Willem II 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.26 / Willem II 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.028 / def 1.036 | Willem II attack 1.059 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Willem II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Willem II xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
NEC Nijmegen 0 - 0 Willem II.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 36% chance of winning, Willem II a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Willem II in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.03x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.06x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.77
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.57
1.31
Willem II xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.31 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 2.00 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Willem II in 0%.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Willem II in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Willem II in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have NEC Nijmegen or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Willem II in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 4-1 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Willem II.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (NEC Nijmegen) and 0% (Willem II) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (NEC Nijmegen) and 67% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Willem II in 67%; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 33% of games; Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 0% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 67% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Willem II tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Willem II in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NEC Nijmegen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Willem II finished level at 0-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.26 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Willem II landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Willem II attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 36% | Draw 27% | Willem II 38%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 33%, Willem II 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 2.00 PPG, Willem II 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.