NEC Nijmegen 0-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Vitesse at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.38 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goffertstadion.
Vitesse — All Games: 4W 1D 3L from 8 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.62 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.62 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.38 PPG (NEC Nijmegen) versus 1.62 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). NEC Nijmegen's 0% and Vitesse's 25% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 38% versus Vitesse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 50% | Vitesse 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.08 xG and Vitesse 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.678 / defence 1.111 | Vitesse attack 0.804 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.425. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 NEC Nijmegen games / 8 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 31% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 41%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Vitesse 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 0% | Vitesse 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 31% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.08 / Vitesse 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.678 / def 1.111 | Vitesse attack 0.804 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Vitesse xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
NEC Nijmegen 0 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 31% chance of winning, Vitesse a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.88 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 0.68x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
31%
3.20
28%
3.59
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.35
1.27
Vitesse xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.27 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 3L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.38 PPG, Vitesse on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.33 PPG; Vitesse away: 2.00 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Vitesse in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Vitesse won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
4
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Vitesse have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — NEC Nijmegen 0% BTTS, Vitesse 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (NEC Nijmegen) and 67% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vitesse in 33%; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 67% of games; Vitesse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 33% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 67% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out NEC Nijmegen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat NEC Nijmegen 0-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.08 xG and Vitesse 1.27 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.68 / defence 1.11 against Vitesse attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 31% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 41%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 50%, Vitesse 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vitesse's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.38 PPG, Vitesse 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.