NEC Nijmegen 0-3 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht have collected 1.60 PPG across 5 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.60 for Utrecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (NEC Nijmegen 20% | Utrecht 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (NEC Nijmegen 20% | Utrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.06 xG and Utrecht 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.861 / defence 0.871 | Utrecht attack 0.597 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.349. Data: 5 NEC Nijmegen games / 5 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 44% | Draw 32% | Utrecht 24%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Utrecht 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Utrecht's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 20% | Utrecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 44% | Draw 32% | Utrecht 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.06 / Utrecht 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.861 / def 0.871 | Utrecht attack 0.597 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Utrecht xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
NEC Nijmegen 0 - 3 Utrecht.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 44% chance of winning, Utrecht a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 0.86x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.60x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
44%
2.29
32%
3.08
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
1.76
0.70
Utrecht xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.70 for Utrecht, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Utrecht's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.60 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Utrecht in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have NEC Nijmegen or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Utrecht in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-3 on 22 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
6
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Utrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (NEC Nijmegen) and 40% (Utrecht) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (NEC Nijmegen) and 60% (Utrecht).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Utrecht in 40%; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 40% of games; Utrecht in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 40% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 60% of Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat NEC Nijmegen 0-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.06 xG and Utrecht 0.70 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Utrecht outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Utrecht attack 0.60 / defence 0.99, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 44% | Draw 32% | Utrecht 24%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 20%, Utrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Utrecht's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.60 PPG, Utrecht 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.