NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Sparta Rotterdam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Goffertstadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (NEC Nijmegen) versus 1.00 (Sparta Rotterdam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (24 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (24 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 62% versus Sparta Rotterdam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.21 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.806 / defence 1.361 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.652 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.271. Sparta Rotterdam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 NEC Nijmegen games / 24 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 38% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 34%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 38% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.21 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.806 / def 1.361 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.652 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sparta Rotterdam xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
NEC Nijmegen 0 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 38% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.56
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.34
1.13
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.13 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 7W 7D 10L from 24 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 12L across 24 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.17 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 1W 3D 6L from 10 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.17 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.79 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 8D 12L in their last 24 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.60 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
6
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 60%, Sparta Rotterdam 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NEC Nijmegen) and 50% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 30% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NEC Nijmegen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 27, as NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.21 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.13 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.81 / defence 1.36 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.65 / defence 1.34, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 38% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 34%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 50%, Sparta Rotterdam 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.17 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.