NEC Nijmegen 1-0 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GO Ahead Eagles at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as NEC Nijmegen welcome GO Ahead Eagles to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Goffertstadion this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GO Ahead Eagles stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GO Ahead Eagles away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. GO Ahead Eagles's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of NEC Nijmegen's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
GO Ahead Eagles trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 52% versus GO Ahead Eagles 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 45% | GO Ahead Eagles 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 0.78 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.619 / defence 1.214 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.627 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.271. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 NEC Nijmegen games / 31 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 28% | Draw 33% | GO Ahead Eagles 38%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | GO Ahead Eagles 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — NEC Nijmegen's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GO Ahead Eagles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 60% | GO Ahead Eagles 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 28% | Draw 33% | GO Ahead Eagles 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG NEC Nijmegen 0.78 / GO Ahead Eagles 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.619 / def 1.214 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.627 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.97
GO Ahead Eagles xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 0 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 28% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 0.62x the league average against GO Ahead Eagles's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GO Ahead Eagles's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
28%
3.53
33%
3.01
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
1.75
0.97
GO Ahead Eagles xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.97 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 8D 14L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, GO Ahead Eagles sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (10W 6D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.13 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 2W 5D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, GO Ahead Eagles have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.16 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
GO Ahead Eagles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 10W 6D 15L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
GO Ahead Eagles's away record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.73 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when GO Ahead Eagles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting GO Ahead Eagles specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
4
Draws
4
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 40%, GO Ahead Eagles 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (NEC Nijmegen) and 33% (GO Ahead Eagles).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 47% of games; GO Ahead Eagles in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play GO Ahead Eagles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 40% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 33% of GO Ahead Eagles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, GO Ahead Eagles in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat GO Ahead Eagles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat GO Ahead Eagles 1-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 0.78 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 0.97 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GO Ahead Eagles landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.62 / defence 1.21 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.63 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 28% | Draw 33% | GO Ahead Eagles 38%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 45%, GO Ahead Eagles 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.13 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.