NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEC Nijmegen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 0.90 for Fortuna Sittard. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NEC Nijmegen lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 51% versus Fortuna Sittard 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 41% | Fortuna Sittard 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.30 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.682 / defence 0.920 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.866 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.463. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 NEC Nijmegen games / 39 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 40% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Sittard 33%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Fortuna Sittard 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: NEC Nijmegen 40% | Fortuna Sittard 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 40% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Sittard 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.30 / Fortuna Sittard 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.682 / def 0.920 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.866 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Fortuna Sittard xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 40% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (2 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (0.68) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.87x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
40%
2.53
27%
3.68
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.17 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 11W 11D 17L from 39 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 24L across 39 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 0.90 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 3W 6D 10L from 19 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.10 scored and 2.13 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 10W 5D 24L in their last 39 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.79 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 4-1 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
3
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 37%, Fortuna Sittard 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (NEC Nijmegen) and 63% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 47% of games; Fortuna Sittard in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 58% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 63% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 6, as NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.30 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.68 / defence 0.92 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 40% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Sittard 33%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 41%, Fortuna Sittard 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.13 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.