NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NEC Nijmegen face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Feyenoord (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Feyenoord are 1.20 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Feyenoord in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 62% versus Feyenoord 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 67% | Feyenoord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.34 xG and Feyenoord 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.905 / defence 1.060 | Feyenoord attack 1.358 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.298. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 NEC Nijmegen games / 39 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 47%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Feyenoord 2.13. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Feyenoord 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.34 / Feyenoord 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.905 / def 1.060 | Feyenoord attack 1.358 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Feyenoord xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 25% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
Record (6 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 4W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.36x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
25%
4.01
28%
3.57
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.21
1.87
Feyenoord xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
4%
25.94
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.87 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 16W 11D 12L from 39 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 2L across 39 games — 2.38 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEC Nijmegen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 9W 4D 7L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 14W 5D 1L across 20 trips, a 2.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.64 scored and 0.79 conceded. NEC Nijmegen's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 16W 11D 12L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 28W 9D 2L in their last 39 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.55 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.35 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-4 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
5
Draws
4
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Feyenoord have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for NEC Nijmegen, 65% for Feyenoord — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for NEC Nijmegen and 70% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 65% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 70% of Feyenoord's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.34 xG and Feyenoord 1.87 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Feyenoord attack 1.36 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 47%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.