Heracles 1-3 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Excelsior at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Excelsior make the trip to Erve Asito to face Heracles in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Erve Asito, Heracles have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Excelsior are the stronger side — 1.53 PPG clear of the hosts (2.33 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heracles lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Excelsior — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Heracles 33% | Excelsior 33%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 67% | Excelsior 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.16 xG and Excelsior 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.851 / defence 1.264 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.303. Data: 34 Heracles games / 0 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 31% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 43%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Excelsior 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 60% | Excelsior 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 31% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Heracles 1.16 / Excelsior 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.851 / def 1.264 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Excelsior xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Excelsior kick off?
Heracles vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Excelsior?
Heracles 1 - 3 Excelsior.
Where is Heracles vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Excelsior part of?
Heracles vs Excelsior is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 31% chance of winning, Excelsior a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Heracles and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are Heracles and Excelsior in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Excelsior (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.85x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.85x) against Heracles's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
31%
3.22
26%
3.79
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.56
1.40
Excelsior xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Heracles and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Heracles and 1.40 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 2.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Excelsior in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Heracles or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Excelsior in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
1
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Excelsior have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Heracles 1-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Heracles) and 33% (Excelsior) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heracles and 67% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 67%; Heracles have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Heracles's recent matches and 33% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 67% of Excelsior's.
Do Heracles and Excelsior tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Heracles 1-3 at Erve Asito, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.16 xG and Excelsior 1.40 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 31% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 43%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 67%, Excelsior 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.