Heracles 3-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Erve Asito to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Eredivisie matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 0.67 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.33), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Heracles 33% | AZ Alkmaar 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Heracles 0% | AZ Alkmaar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 0.88 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.654 / defence 1.203 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.939 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.156. Heracles's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Heracles games / 3 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 25% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 47%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | AZ Alkmaar 2.13. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 33% | AZ Alkmaar 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 25% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Heracles 0.88 / AZ Alkmaar 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.654 / def 1.203 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.939 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.31
AZ Alkmaar xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heracles 3 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 25% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Heracles and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar in?
Heracles (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.65x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
25%
3.99
28%
3.52
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.18
1.31
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.7 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Heracles and 1.31 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Heracles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
1
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Heracles 33% BTTS, AZ Alkmaar 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Heracles and 67% for AZ Alkmaar.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 67% of games; AZ Alkmaar in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Heracles's recent matches and 33% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Heracles's recent games and 67% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat AZ Alkmaar 3-2 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 0.88 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.31 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.65 / defence 1.20 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 25% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 47%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Heracles win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 0%, AZ Alkmaar 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. AZ Alkmaar scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.