Heerenveen 1-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heerenveen host PSV Eindhoven at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 4L across 7 games at Abe Lenstra Stadion this term (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 2L across 6 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Heerenveen's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heerenveen 69% and PSV Eindhoven 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heerenveen 54% | PSV Eindhoven 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.39 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.917 / defence 1.313 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.065 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.338. PSV Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Heerenveen games / 13 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 29% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 49%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | PSV Eindhoven 2.04. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 71% | PSV Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 29% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Heerenveen 1.39 / PSV Eindhoven 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.917 / def 1.313 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.065 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.87
PSV Eindhoven xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Heerenveen 1 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 29% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heerenveen's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
29%
3.49
23%
4.44
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.26
1.87
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
4%
22.68
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.87 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 5W 2D 6L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 10W 0D 3L from 13 games, 2.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heerenveen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 10W 0D 3L in their last 13 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.00 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2024, when PSV Eindhoven won 0-8 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Heerenveen
2
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 67%, PSV Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heerenveen and 83% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Heerenveen's games and 50% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heerenveen's matches and 83% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.39 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.87 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 29% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 49%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 54%, PSV Eindhoven 85%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.