Heerenveen 0-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees PEC Zwolle travel to Abe Lenstra Stadion to take on Heerenveen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heerenveen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen at Abe Lenstra Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 0W 1D 8L from 9 away outings — 0.11 PPG. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.11 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heerenveen at 1.20 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Heerenveen have won 1, PEC Zwolle 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Heerenveen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 58% versus PEC Zwolle 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Heerenveen 47% | PEC Zwolle 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.33 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.783 / defence 1.221 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.605 / defence 1.531. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.355. Heerenveen's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.531 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Heerenveen games / 19 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 44% | Draw 28% | PEC Zwolle 28%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | PEC Zwolle 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heerenveen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Heerenveen 60% | PEC Zwolle 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 44% | Draw 28% | PEC Zwolle 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Heerenveen 1.33 / PEC Zwolle 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.783 / def 1.221 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.605 / def 1.531 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.00
PEC Zwolle xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen 0 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 44% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Heerenveen 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heerenveen's attack rating (0.78) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.62
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.33
1.00
PEC Zwolle xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 7W 4D 8L from 19 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 14L across 19 games — 0.47 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heerenveen by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.32 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 0W 1D 8L across 9 trips, a 0.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.58 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 3D 14L in their last 19 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heerenveen's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 0.89 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Heerenveen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
3
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Heerenveen 4-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 56%, PEC Zwolle 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Heerenveen) and 44% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Heerenveen have failed to score in 33% of games; PEC Zwolle in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 44% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Heerenveen's recent games and 44% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat Heerenveen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heerenveen 0-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.33 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.00 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Heerenveen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.78 / defence 1.22 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.60 / defence 1.53, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 44% | Draw 28% | PEC Zwolle 28%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 47%, PEC Zwolle 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.47. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.