Heerenveen 0-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 39%, yet in-form Heerenveen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 5 as Heerenveen welcome NEC Nijmegen to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heerenveen have posted 5W 2D 3L at Abe Lenstra Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Heerenveen have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heerenveen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NEC Nijmegen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Heerenveen, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 53% versus NEC Nijmegen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 50% | NEC Nijmegen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.46 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.935 / defence 0.888 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.181 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.435. Data: 38 Heerenveen games / 38 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 37% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 39%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | NEC Nijmegen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heerenveen (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 60% | NEC Nijmegen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 37% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Heerenveen 1.46 / NEC Nijmegen 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.935 / def 0.888 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.181 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.50
NEC Nijmegen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Heerenveen 0 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 37% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (2 meetings): Heerenveen 0W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heerenveen's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
37%
2.72
24%
4.09
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.96
1.50
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 17L across 38 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.21 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 7W 4D 8L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 8W 4D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.16 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.32 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
4
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 58%, NEC Nijmegen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Heerenveen) and 53% (NEC Nijmegen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Heerenveen's games and 68% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Heerenveen's matches and 53% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Heerenveen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.46 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.50 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.18 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 37% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 39%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 50%, NEC Nijmegen 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.21 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.