Groningen 1-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Willem II at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Groningen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Groningen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Groningen, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 61% versus Willem II 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 39% | Willem II 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.32 xG and Willem II 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.720 / defence 0.935 | Willem II attack 0.635 / defence 1.634. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.372. Groningen's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.634 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Groningen games / 23 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 48% | Draw 29% | Willem II 23%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Willem II 4.35. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Groningen 60% | Willem II 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 48% | Draw 29% | Willem II 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Groningen 1.32 / Willem II 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.720 / def 0.935 | Willem II attack 0.635 / def 1.634 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Groningen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Willem II xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Willem II kick off?
Groningen vs Willem II kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Willem II?
Groningen 1 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Groningen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Willem II part of?
Groningen vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 48% chance of winning, Willem II a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Groningen and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Groningen and Willem II in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Willem II (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.72) and Willem II's defence rating (1.63), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.49
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.14
0.81
Willem II xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
6%
16.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Groningen and 0.81 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 6W 8D 9L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 6W 3D 14L from 23 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.13 PPG, Willem II on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 2D 7L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.91 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 6W 8D 9L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Willem II have gone 6W 3D 14L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Willem II away?
Groningen's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.09 PPG; Willem II away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Groningen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Groningen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Groningen
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Willem II?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 54%, Willem II 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 9% (Groningen) and 64% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 36% of games; Willem II in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Groningen's recent matches and 54% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Groningen's recent games and 64% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Willem II tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Willem II in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Groningen edge out Willem II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Willem II 1-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.32 xG and Willem II 0.81 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.72 / defence 0.94 against Willem II attack 0.64 / defence 1.63, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 48% | Draw 29% | Willem II 23%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 39%, Willem II 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.13 PPG, Willem II 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.