Groningen 2-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 38%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Groningen vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Willem II at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Willem II — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Groningen, 1 for Willem II and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Willem II in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 45% versus Willem II 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 55% | Willem II 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.09 xG and Willem II 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.759 / defence 0.875 | Willem II attack 0.873 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.260. Groningen's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Groningen games / 13 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 30% | Willem II 31%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Willem II 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 40% | Willem II 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 30% | Willem II 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Groningen 1.09 / Willem II 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.759 / def 0.875 | Willem II attack 0.873 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Willem II xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Willem II kick off?
Groningen vs Willem II kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Willem II?
Groningen 2 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Groningen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Willem II part of?
Groningen vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 38% chance of winning, Willem II a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Groningen and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 2 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Groningen and Willem II in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Groningen vs Willem II?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.76) and Willem II's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.31
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.06
0.96
Willem II xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Groningen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Groningen and 0.96 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 25W 12D 14L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 27W 14D 10L from 51 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.71 PPG, Willem II on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (14W 7D 4L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 11W 9D 5L from 25 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.80 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 25W 12D 14L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while Willem II have gone 27W 14D 10L in their last 51 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Willem II away?
Groningen's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.96 PPG; Willem II away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Groningen or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Willem II in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Groningen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Groningen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Groningen
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Willem II?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 40%, Willem II 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Groningen) and 28% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Groningen's recent matches and 56% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Groningen's recent games and 28% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Willem II tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Willem II 2-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.09 xG and Willem II 0.96 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Willem II landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.76 / defence 0.88 against Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 38% | Draw 30% | Willem II 31%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 55%, Willem II 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Willem II's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.71 PPG, Willem II 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.