Groningen 2-3 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as Groningen welcome Waalwijk to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 3W 1D 6L at Euroborg — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Waalwijk — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Groningen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Groningen, 1 for Waalwijk and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 64% and Waalwijk 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 50% | Waalwijk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.14 xG and Waalwijk 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.785 / defence 1.237 | Waalwijk attack 0.889 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.274. Groningen's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Groningen games / 42 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 30% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 43%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Waalwijk 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 30% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Groningen 1.14 / Waalwijk 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.785 / def 1.237 | Waalwijk attack 0.889 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Waalwijk xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Waalwijk kick off?
Groningen vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Groningen 2 - 3 Waalwijk.
Where is Groningen vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Waalwijk part of?
Groningen vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 30% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Groningen and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Groningen and Waalwijk in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
30%
3.28
26%
3.78
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.54
1.40
Waalwijk xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
13.33
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Groningen and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Groningen and 1.40 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 11D 20L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.14 PPG from 42 outings (11W 15D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.05 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 5W 6D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (3W 10D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.36 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 11W 11D 20L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Waalwijk away?
Groningen's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.05 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Groningen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Groningen won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, Waalwijk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Groningen 6-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Groningen at 60%, Waalwijk at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Groningen) and 50% (Waalwijk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Groningen's games and 75% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Groningen's recent games and 50% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out Groningen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Groningen 2-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.14 xG and Waalwijk 1.40 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waalwijk outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.79 / defence 1.24 against Waalwijk attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 30% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 43%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 50%, Waalwijk 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.05 PPG, Waalwijk 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.