Groningen 1-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Feyenoord travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 1W 5D 1L this season (7 games, 1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 60% versus Feyenoord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 40% | Feyenoord 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 0.87 xG and Feyenoord 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.753 / defence 0.949 | Feyenoord attack 0.970 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.328. Groningen's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Groningen games / 15 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 26% | Draw 29% | Feyenoord 44%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Feyenoord 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 57% | Feyenoord 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 26% | Draw 29% | Feyenoord 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Groningen 0.87 / Feyenoord 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.753 / def 0.949 | Feyenoord attack 0.970 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Feyenoord xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Groningen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Groningen 1 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Groningen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Feyenoord part of?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 26% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Groningen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.75) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
26%
3.79
29%
3.41
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.10
1.22
Feyenoord xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Groningen and 1.22 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 6D 5L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (11W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 1W 5D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Feyenoord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.53 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 11W 2D 2L in their last 15 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.14 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Groningen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
3
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 57%, Feyenoord 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Groningen) and 71% (Feyenoord).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 57%; Groningen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Groningen's recent matches and 43% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Groningen's recent games and 71% of Feyenoord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 16, as Groningen and Feyenoord drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 0.87 xG and Feyenoord 1.22 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.75 / defence 0.95 against Feyenoord attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 26% | Draw 29% | Feyenoord 44%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 40%, Feyenoord 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.