Groningen 2-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and FC Volendam meet at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Groningen (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Groningen haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Volendam have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Volendam haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Volendam are 0.50 PPG clear of Groningen in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Volendam in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 65% and FC Volendam 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 50% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.62 xG and FC Volendam 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.946 / defence 1.094 | FC Volendam attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.317. Data: 34 Groningen games / 0 FC Volendam games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Groningen 47% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 29%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | FC Volendam 3.45. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 47% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Groningen 1.62 / FC Volendam 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.946 / def 1.094 | FC Volendam attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Groningen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
FC Volendam xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs FC Volendam kick off?
Groningen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Groningen 2 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Groningen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs FC Volendam part of?
Groningen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 47% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Groningen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and FC Volendam in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Groningen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.95) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.85x) against Groningen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.09
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.85
1.22
FC Volendam xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
6%
17.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Groningen and 1.22 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen's recent record stands at 9W 9D 16L from 34 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. Groningen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 4L across 34 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. FC Volendam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 4W 6D 7L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 8W 7D 2L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 74%.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Pre-Season
FC Volendam
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 20W 10D 4L in their last 34 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.06 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when FC Volendam 3-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
FC Volendam see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 59%, FC Volendam 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Groningen) and 53% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 35%; Groningen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Groningen's games and 65% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Groningen's recent games and 53% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and FC Volendam finished level at 2-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.62 xG and FC Volendam 1.22 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 47% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 29%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 50%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.