GO Ahead Eagles 2-5 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles host PSV Eindhoven at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. GO Ahead Eagles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Adelaarshorst, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PSV Eindhoven's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PSV Eindhoven — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, GO Ahead Eagles have won 0, PSV Eindhoven 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 43% versus PSV Eindhoven 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 43% | PSV Eindhoven 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.44 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.989 / defence 0.973 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.169 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.362. Data: 35 GO Ahead Eagles games / 35 PSV Eindhoven games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 35% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 40%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | PSV Eindhoven 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 50% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 35% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.44 / PSV Eindhoven 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.989 / def 0.973 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.169 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.55
PSV Eindhoven xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
GO Ahead Eagles 2 - 5 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 35% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 2W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
35%
2.83
24%
4.11
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
2.99
1.55
PSV Eindhoven xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.55 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GO Ahead Eagles's recent record stands at 10W 6D 19L from 35 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 27W 3D 5L across 35 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GO Ahead Eagles heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, GO Ahead Eagles have managed 7W 1D 9L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PSV Eindhoven's away record stands at 12W 3D 2L across 17 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.57 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 10W 6D 19L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 27W 3D 5L in their last 35 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.29 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GO Ahead Eagles
0
Draws
9
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 1-4 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 47%, PSV Eindhoven 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for GO Ahead Eagles and 76% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 65% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 76% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 2-5 hammering of GO Ahead Eagles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat GO Ahead Eagles 2-5 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.44 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.55 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.55 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.17 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 35% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 40%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 43%, PSV Eindhoven 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.