GO Ahead Eagles 0-2 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees NEC Nijmegen travel to De Adelaarshorst to take on GO Ahead Eagles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GO Ahead Eagles stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 4W 0D 4L at De Adelaarshorst — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GO Ahead Eagles 1.50 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 44% versus NEC Nijmegen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 44% | NEC Nijmegen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.51 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.957 / defence 1.248 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.915 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.379. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing GO Ahead Eagles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 GO Ahead Eagles games / 16 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 37% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 39%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | NEC Nijmegen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 50% | NEC Nijmegen 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 37% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.51 / NEC Nijmegen 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.957 / def 1.248 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.915 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.57
NEC Nijmegen xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen?
GO Ahead Eagles 0 - 2 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 37% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates GO Ahead Eagles's attack at 0.96x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
37%
2.73
24%
4.16
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
3.08
1.57
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.57 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GO Ahead Eagles come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 3D 7L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GO Ahead Eagles on 1.31 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
GO Ahead Eagles's home form reads 4W 0D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
GO Ahead Eagles's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.50 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.38 PPG.
Have GO Ahead Eagles or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
GO Ahead Eagles have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when GO Ahead Eagles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
GO Ahead Eagles
4
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 50%, NEC Nijmegen 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GO Ahead Eagles) and 62% (NEC Nijmegen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 75% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 62% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GO Ahead Eagles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat GO Ahead Eagles 0-2 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.51 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.57 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.96 / defence 1.25 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 37% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 39%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 44%, NEC Nijmegen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.31 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.