GO Ahead Eagles 1-4 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles host AZ Alkmaar at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
GO Ahead Eagles — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles at De Adelaarshorst this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — GO Ahead Eagles are significantly better at De Adelaarshorst than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 2.40 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of GO Ahead Eagles's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for GO Ahead Eagles, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–5 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
GO Ahead Eagles in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 43% versus AZ Alkmaar 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 38% | AZ Alkmaar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 0.94 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.816 / defence 1.306 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.882 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.390. Data: 21 GO Ahead Eagles games / 21 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 22% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 53%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 1.89. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: GO Ahead Eagles 40% | AZ Alkmaar 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 22% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 0.94 / AZ Alkmaar 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.816 / def 1.306 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.882 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.60
AZ Alkmaar xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 4 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 22% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (1 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 0W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
22%
4.55
25%
4.00
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
2.54
1.60
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.55
22%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
4%
22.56
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.60 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, GO Ahead Eagles have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 4D 11L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 12W 3D 6L from 21 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GO Ahead Eagles.
Venue Form
On home soil, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (4W 0D 6L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.86 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 12W 3D 6L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.20 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when AZ Alkmaar won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GO Ahead Eagles
3
Draws
7
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 0-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 40%, AZ Alkmaar 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GO Ahead Eagles) and 70% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles have failed to score in 40% of games; AZ Alkmaar in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 70% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 70% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of GO Ahead Eagles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat GO Ahead Eagles 1-4 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 0.94 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.60 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 22% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 53%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 38%, AZ Alkmaar 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.