GO Ahead Eagles 2-1 Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajax at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax meet at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
GO Ahead Eagles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 4W 0D 6L at De Adelaarshorst — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — GO Ahead Eagles are significantly better at De Adelaarshorst than their overall form suggests.
Ajax have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Ajax have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 9 away clean sheets from 10 games (90%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ajax arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GO Ahead Eagles lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
GO Ahead Eagles — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ajax — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 83% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (GO Ahead Eagles 48% | Ajax 13%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 44% | Ajax 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 0.59 xG and Ajax 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.804 / defence 1.514 | Ajax attack 1.156 / defence 0.637. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.343. Ajax's defence strength of 0.637 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 GO Ahead Eagles games / 23 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 8% | Draw 16% | Ajax 77%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 12.50 | Draw 6.25 | Ajax 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 50% | Ajax 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 8% | Draw 16% | Ajax 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 40% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 0.59 / Ajax 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.804 / def 1.514 | Ajax attack 1.156 / def 0.637 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Ajax (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Ajax xG
40%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?
GO Ahead Eagles 2 - 1 Ajax.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 8% chance of winning, Ajax a 77% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 0W | Draws 1 | Ajax 0W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Ajax (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Ajax's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.59. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.16x) against GO Ahead Eagles's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 2.35.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-3 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
8%
13.25
16%
6.42
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
0 – 3
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
2.94
2.35
Ajax xG
13.25
8%
Home win
6.42
16%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
10%
10.50
55%
1.80
Win to Nil
1%
139.02
43%
2.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 12.4 | 14.6 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 2.35 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, GO Ahead Eagles have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 5D 12L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax's form line: 18W 3D 2L from 23 games, 2.48 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 1.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GO Ahead Eagles.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (4W 0D 7L).
On the road, Ajax have gone 9W 2D 0L from 11 away games — 2.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 3.04 scored and 0.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 13%.
Defensively: Ajax in 83% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Ajax have gone 18W 3D 2L in their last 23 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.09 PPG; Ajax away: 2.64 PPG.
Have GO Ahead Eagles or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
GO Ahead Eagles have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ajax in 83%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GO Ahead Eagles
7
Draws
2
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 1, Ajax have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Ajax 2-2 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 46% (GO Ahead Eagles) and 18% (Ajax) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GO Ahead Eagles) and 36% (Ajax).
On the defensive side: Ajax in 82%; GO Ahead Eagles have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent matches and 18% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent games and 36% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ajax in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GO Ahead Eagles defy the odds to beat Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GO Ahead Eagles beat Ajax 2-1 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 0.59 xG and Ajax 2.35 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajax landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.80 / defence 1.51 against Ajax attack 1.16 / defence 0.64, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 8% | Draw 16% | Ajax 77%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a GO Ahead Eagles win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 44%, Ajax 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 13% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 83% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with GO Ahead Eagles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.