Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Fortuna Sittard's 3.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.61 xG and Waalwijk 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.071 / defence 1.138 | Waalwijk attack 0.968 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.119. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Fortuna Sittard games / 2 Waalwijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 45% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 28%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Waalwijk 3.57. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 45% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.61 / Waalwijk 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.071 / def 1.138 | Waalwijk attack 0.968 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Waalwijk xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Fortuna Sittard 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 45% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.97x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.82
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.85
1.23
Waalwijk xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
6%
17.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.23 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Sittard carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. Waalwijk's attacking output running into Fortuna Sittard's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 4, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Waalwijk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 100% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 100% of Waalwijk's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.61 xG and Waalwijk 1.23 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 1.07 / defence 1.14 against Waalwijk attack 0.97 / defence 1.37, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 45% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 28%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 100%, Waalwijk 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Sittard arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortuna Sittard shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.