Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 33 as Fortuna Sittard welcome Vitesse to Fortuna Sittard Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fortuna Sittard's home record at Fortuna Sittard Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitesse's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Fortuna Sittard) versus 1.10 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 0 for Vitesse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Vitesse trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 56% versus Vitesse 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 62% | Vitesse 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.11 xG and Vitesse 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.857 / defence 1.236 | Vitesse attack 0.793 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.281. Data: 32 Fortuna Sittard games / 32 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 33% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 40%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Vitesse 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 40% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 33% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.11 / Vitesse 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.857 / def 1.236 | Vitesse attack 0.793 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Vitesse xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 2 Vitesse.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 33% chance of winning, Vitesse a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 0W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.60
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.37
1.25
Vitesse xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.25 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 9W 5D 18L from 32 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 13L across 32 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitesse by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 6W 2D 8L from 16 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.19 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 9W 5D 18L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 14W 5D 13L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.25 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Vitesse 3-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 50%, Vitesse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fortuna Sittard) and 50% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Vitesse in 31%; Vitesse in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 44% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 50% of Vitesse's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out Fortuna Sittard 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Fortuna Sittard 1-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.11 xG and Vitesse 1.25 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.86 / defence 1.24 against Vitesse attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 33% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 40%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 62%, Vitesse 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.