Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus Utrecht in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 4L across 7 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Utrecht have posted 2W 1D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Utrecht are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 69% and Utrecht 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 69% | Utrecht 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.29 xG and Utrecht 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.805 / defence 1.676 | Utrecht attack 0.733 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.346. Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Fortuna Sittard games / 16 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 30% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 46%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Utrecht 2.17. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 71% | Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 30% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.29 / Utrecht 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.805 / def 1.676 | Utrecht attack 0.733 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Utrecht xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Fortuna Sittard 2 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 30% chance of winning, Utrecht a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Utrecht (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Utrecht's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.73x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
30%
3.37
25%
4.07
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.94
1.65
Utrecht xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.65 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 3W 3D 10L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 8W 3D 5L from 16 games, 1.69 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Utrecht are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 2W 0D 5L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Utrecht's season.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Utrecht in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Utrecht away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.00 PPG; Utrecht away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Utrecht in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 4-0 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
4
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, Utrecht have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Utrecht 2-0 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 71%, Utrecht 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Fortuna Sittard and 71% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 57% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 71% of Utrecht's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht finished level at 2-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.29 xG and Utrecht 1.65 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.81 / defence 1.68 against Utrecht attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 30% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 46%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 69%, Utrecht 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.