Fortuna Sittard 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 February 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sparta Rotterdam are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 58% versus Sparta Rotterdam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 0.96 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.880 / defence 1.066 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.080 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.264. Sparta Rotterdam's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Fortuna Sittard games / 53 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 23% | Draw 31% | Sparta Rotterdam 46%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.17. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 40% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 23% | Draw 31% | Sparta Rotterdam 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Fortuna Sittard 0.96 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.880 / def 1.066 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.080 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sparta Rotterdam xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Fortuna Sittard 0 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 23% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
23%
4.40
31%
3.21
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.42
1.46
Sparta Rotterdam xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
5%
18.87
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.46 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 9D 28L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 17W 17D 19L from 53 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.08 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 7W 8D 11L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.13 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 9D 28L in their last 53 games (1.08 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 17W 17D 19L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.08 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fortuna Sittard
4
Draws
5
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 46%, Sparta Rotterdam 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fortuna Sittard) and 54% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 35%; Sparta Rotterdam in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 38% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fortuna Sittard's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 0.96 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.46 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.88 / defence 1.07 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.08 / defence 0.75, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 23% | Draw 31% | Sparta Rotterdam 46%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 60%, Sparta Rotterdam 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.08 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.