Fortuna Sittard 3-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Sittard 1.00 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 1 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 56% versus Sparta Rotterdam 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 59% | Sparta Rotterdam 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 0.95 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.715 / defence 1.351 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.621 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.298. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Fortuna Sittard games / 27 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 31% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 38%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 31% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Fortuna Sittard 0.95 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.715 / def 1.351 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.621 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sparta Rotterdam xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 31% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.71x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.29
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.04
1.09
Sparta Rotterdam xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.09 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 0.74 PPG on a 5W 5D 17L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 4W 10D 13L from 27 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 0.74 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 4D 7L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.78 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 games (0.74 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 10D 13L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 0.92 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fortuna Sittard
4
Draws
5
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 50%, Sparta Rotterdam 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fortuna Sittard) and 50% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 42% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Sittard run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 0.95 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.09 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.71 / defence 1.35 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.62 / defence 1.18, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 31% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 38%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 59%, Sparta Rotterdam 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 0.74 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.