Fortuna Sittard 1-4 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PSV Eindhoven have posted 3W 0D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
PSV Eindhoven arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 70% and PSV Eindhoven 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 60% | PSV Eindhoven 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.22 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.775 / defence 1.367 | PSV Eindhoven attack 0.897 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.387. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Fortuna Sittard games / 11 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 27% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 49%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | PSV Eindhoven 2.04. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 60% | PSV Eindhoven 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 27% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.22 / PSV Eindhoven 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.775 / def 1.367 | PSV Eindhoven attack 0.897 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.70
PSV Eindhoven xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 4 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 27% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (0.90x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
27%
3.65
24%
4.18
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.92
1.70
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.65
27%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
5%
19.97
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.70 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 2W 3D 5L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games, 2.10 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PSV Eindhoven's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.50 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.00 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 5-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 50%, PSV Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Fortuna Sittard and 100% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 50% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 100% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Fortuna Sittard 1-4 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.22 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.70 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.78 / defence 1.37 against PSV Eindhoven attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 27% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 49%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 60%, PSV Eindhoven 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.