Fortuna Sittard 1-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 0.83 PPG across 6 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 2D 3L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1W 1D 1L at Fortuna Sittard Stadion — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.83 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games (1.14 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.83 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.14 for NEC Nijmegen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 67% versus NEC Nijmegen 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 67% | NEC Nijmegen 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.66 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.875 / defence 1.485 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.862 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.434. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.398 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Fortuna Sittard games / 7 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 35% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | NEC Nijmegen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 67% | NEC Nijmegen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 35% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.66 / NEC Nijmegen 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.875 / def 1.485 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.862 / def 1.398 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.84
NEC Nijmegen xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 35% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.17 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.88x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.86x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
35%
2.83
22%
4.50
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.50
1.84
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
6%
17.74
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.84 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 2L across 6 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Fortuna Sittard are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.33 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 4-1 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Fortuna Sittard, 67% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fortuna Sittard and 33% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 33%; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 67% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 33% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Fortuna Sittard 1-3 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.66 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.84 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.88 / defence 1.49 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 35% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 42%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 67%, NEC Nijmegen 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.